When talent is a commodity

AI may not take your job. It may just make your job cheaper.

That's the case Berkeley economist Jón Steinsson made last week. Most people model AI as automation: jobs disappear. That is the fear.

He and co-authors Emi Nakamura and Masao Fukui argue a better model may be commoditization. AI makes hard work easier (his example: vibe coding versus real coding), so many more people can do it. Plenty of jobs. Weaker bargaining power. Lower wages.

This sounds right to me.

Now read that as a marketer would and swap "worker" for "company."

If AI lets every competitor ship good-enough code, copy, design and service, then "we're good at it" stops being a reason to choose you. Competence becomes table stakes. Price becomes the tiebreaker.

The one thing that doesn't commoditize is being chosen by name.

Early in my career I worked on Absolut. Vodka is about as close to a commodity as a liquor shelf gets - odorless, tasteless, clear - and the brand was the business. AI is about to put a lot more categories on that shelf.

Is your product tasteless? odorless? clear?

That's the Performance Branding case in one line: brand is not the soft cost you cut when AI makes production cheap. It's the pricing power that protects your margin when everyone can produce equally.

Brands that enhance the differentiation and amplify the "why" are going to win in the age of AI.

Three questions to ask yourself:
1. If a buyer's AI assistant lists you and four rivals, why would they pick you at a higher price?
2. Which of your proof points could a competitor claim tomorrow with AI? Retire them.
3. Are you tracking branded search and win rate at full price, or only cost per lead?

When competence gets cheap, the brand is the premium.